Feb 28, 2026 — Six wallets profited $1.2M hours before Iran strikes

See the signal before the market moves

Presage monitors prediction markets in real time, detecting suspicious wallet activity and alerting you before informed money moves the price.

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What Presage would have caught

Six newly created wallets placed large, concentrated bets on a U.S. strike on Iran — hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.

POLYMARKET / US STRIKES IRAN BY FEB 28
$529M traded. Six wallets knew.
$1.2M
Insider Profit
6
Wallets Flagged
-24h

Wallets created & funded

Six brand-new wallets receive large USDC deposits via Polygon. No prior trading history.

-6h

Concentrated bets placed

All six wallets buy "Yes" shares at ~$0.10 — a 10% implied probability. Largest position: 560,680 shares for $60,816.

PRESAGE ALERT: SCORE 94/100
-71m

"Magamyman" places $26,513 bet

Market probability at 17%. Single concentrated position on one outcome. New account, no diversification.

PRESAGE ALERT: SCORE 87/100
0h

U.S. & Israel strike Iran

President Trump announces "Operation Epic Fury." Market resolves to $1.00. Six wallets cash out $1.2M total.

MARKET RESOLVED
+1h

Wallets fully exit

All six wallets show $0 in positions. Bubblemaps publishes analysis. Bloomberg, NPR, CBS pick up the story.

Five signals. One score.

Presage stacks multiple on-chain signals into a single Suspicious Activity Score from 0–100.

🔒

New Wallet Detection

Flags wallets created within hours or days of placing their first bet. Fresh accounts with large deposits are the #1 insider indicator.

+35 pts
🎯

Concentrated Position

Detects wallets that go all-in on a single market instead of diversifying. One bet, one outcome, maximum conviction.

+25 pts
📈

Low Probability Betting

Watches for large bets on events priced under 15%. Buying at $0.10 when the crowd says "unlikely" signals private information.

+20 pts
🐘

Whale Volume Spike

Tracks sudden surges in one-directional volume on previously quiet markets. When a dead market wakes up, something's happening.

+15 pts
🔗

Wallet Clustering

Identifies wallets funded through similar paths or acting in coordinated patterns. Six wallets moving the same way isn't coincidence.

+10 pts

Rapid Exit Pattern

Monitors wallets that cash out immediately after market resolution and return to zero positions — the classic hit-and-run.

+10 pts

From blockchain to your inbox

1

Monitor on-chain activity

Presage continuously indexes every trade on Polymarket's smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain. Every wallet, every bet, every timestamp — captured in real time.

2

Score suspicious patterns

Our detection engine cross-references wallet age, deposit size, bet concentration, market probability, volume anomalies, and wallet clustering into a single Suspicious Activity Score.

3

Alert before the move

When a high-score event fires, you get an instant notification via Telegram, email, or SMS — with the market, the signal breakdown, and a direct link to the trade.

Presage Alert Feed
Live
97
US strikes Iran by Feb 28?
6 new wallets • $160K total • 10% probability
$160,816
6h ago
92
Maduro out by Jan 31?
1 new wallet • $32K • 8% probability
$32,000
2h ago
78
Fed rate cut March?
whale wallet • $85K • 22% probability
$85,200
14m ago
54
Bitcoin above $100K by April?
known whale • $42K • 35% probability
$42,000
38m ago

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