Presage monitors prediction markets in real time, detecting suspicious wallet activity and alerting you before informed money moves the price.
Six newly created wallets placed large, concentrated bets on a U.S. strike on Iran — hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.
Six brand-new wallets receive large USDC deposits via Polygon. No prior trading history.
All six wallets buy "Yes" shares at ~$0.10 — a 10% implied probability. Largest position: 560,680 shares for $60,816.
Market probability at 17%. Single concentrated position on one outcome. New account, no diversification.
President Trump announces "Operation Epic Fury." Market resolves to $1.00. Six wallets cash out $1.2M total.
All six wallets show $0 in positions. Bubblemaps publishes analysis. Bloomberg, NPR, CBS pick up the story.
Presage stacks multiple on-chain signals into a single Suspicious Activity Score from 0–100.
Flags wallets created within hours or days of placing their first bet. Fresh accounts with large deposits are the #1 insider indicator.
Detects wallets that go all-in on a single market instead of diversifying. One bet, one outcome, maximum conviction.
Watches for large bets on events priced under 15%. Buying at $0.10 when the crowd says "unlikely" signals private information.
Tracks sudden surges in one-directional volume on previously quiet markets. When a dead market wakes up, something's happening.
Identifies wallets funded through similar paths or acting in coordinated patterns. Six wallets moving the same way isn't coincidence.
Monitors wallets that cash out immediately after market resolution and return to zero positions — the classic hit-and-run.
Presage continuously indexes every trade on Polymarket's smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain. Every wallet, every bet, every timestamp — captured in real time.
Our detection engine cross-references wallet age, deposit size, bet concentration, market probability, volume anomalies, and wallet clustering into a single Suspicious Activity Score.
When a high-score event fires, you get an instant notification via Telegram, email, or SMS — with the market, the signal breakdown, and a direct link to the trade.
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